A common No Limit Poker problem

A common No Limit Poker problem: You have Ace King, but the flop has missed you. This happens all the time: you have made a decent raise with AK suited or offsuit before the flop. Someone has called your raise, and the flop has not brought an Ace or a King, or a flush or inside straight draw. What you have is nothing but two overcards, giving you 6 outs. 6 Outs means that you have a 12,8 chance to spike an Ace or King on the river. This is the probability side of things, but the main questions you are facing now are different: should I bet one more time, what if my opponent bets first, do I call or even raise? This kind of hand can quickly escalate and cost you a lot of chips in No Limit.

Let's break the problem down to different situations: You are first to act after the flop, and you have one player behind you who has called your flop. There is a good chance that this player does not like the flop either, so many times he will fold if you make another bet of decent size (half the pot or higher). If you have a tight table image, it will work better for you. But you should take a close look at the other player, and if you know him, consider what kind of hands he would have called your pre-flop raise with. If he is a tight player, he is very likely to have a hand similar to yours. He might have a high pocket pair, but if he is the type who would have re-raised with such a hand, you can eliminate this possibility. Consider what the flop must looks like for him, and then decide. If he is a loose player, the chances of him having hit the flop with the low cards are much higher. Most of your profit in this situation comes from the cases where the player behind you folds to your continuation bet (fold equity). The problem is, a loose player is rather likely not to fold (either because he has hit high, middle or even low pair on the flop, has a pocket pair or a drawing hand). The more coordinated the flop is, the higher the chance that the opponent will call you with a draw. So the continuation bet does not work as well against a loose player. You are first to act after the flop, and you have two or more players behind you who have called your flop. Here, the chances of making all the players behind you fold go down with every additional player behind you. If you bet again, you might even run into a raise. So you should check here and see what happens. If someone bets and the pot odds are ok, call but watch out if it is the button betting - there are more players to act behind you. When you look at your pot odds, consider this: very often, the player who bets may have paired one of his pocket cards on the flop and have either Ace or King kicker. Now 3 out of your 6 outs are tainted, since a King or Ace would give you top pair, and two pair to your opponent.

You are sitting between two or more players after the flop. This is the worst scenario with overcards. If the player acting first bets, you should definitely not just call, since you may very well find yourself in a betting war between the two players to your left and right. So either fold or raise here - raising has the advantage that you will probably get the player behind you to fold (if he still calls, he must have a big hand). If he folds, the way the initial bettor reacts to your raise will give you information about his hand. Also, many times this raise will give you a free look at the river because your opponent may check to you on the turn. If the first player checks, you may consider making a continuation bet, but be careful. He might be out for a check-raise since you were the preflop raiser, or the player behind you might wake up with a big hand. So you do not want to commit yourself too much here. And remember one basic thing about No Limit, especially in tournaments: A drawing hand does not have the same value here as in Limit Ring Games, because your draw can get you eliminated or cost you many chips. So when you think of pot odds, also think about how much of your stack calling on the basis of those pot odds may finally cost you!